Global Biofuels Outlook to 2025

Hart Energy brings you all essential global information on ethanol and biodiesel into ONE SINGLE, UNBIASED, RELIABLE report. Our fuel specialists around the world have thoroughly researched fundamental market data to bring you critical insight and a long-term view on the future of ethanol and biodiesel.

This timely report covers:

• Projections for current and future production capacity for each region of the world and detailed for over 20 countries
  
• Supply & demand per country, current and outlook to 2025
  
• Policy and taxation review per country – current and future
  
• NEW FEATURE: Aviation biofuels developments
  

>> DOWNLOAD the Study Authors, Table of Contents, and Executive Summary

Analysis and Contents

This study compiles and analyzes thoroughly researched market data to provide you with a long-term view on the growing role of biofuels in worldwide gasoline and diesel markets.

A comprehensive analysis of the global ethanol & biodiesel market with focus on key developments in 
Asia Pacific, EU-27, Africa, Russia & the CIS countries, and the Americas, broken down at country level.

Covering predominantly ethanol and biodiesel, but also covering ETBE (ethyl tertiary butyl ether), cellulosic ethanol and renewable diesel (also known as non-ester biodiesel) where applicable, the study captures the current and near-term biofuels supply and demand picture in 23 countries in five key regions.

For each region, an introduction and overview will cover the major trends. The issues covered by country include:

	Ethanol Identification of key producers by country  Projections for current and future production capacity  Mapping of Public Policy Environment – Current and Future  Demand Outlook for 2015, 2020, 2025 Supply & Demand Balance for 2015, 2020, 2025
	Biodiesel Identification of key producers by country  Projections for current and future production capacity  Mapping of Public Policy Environment – Current and Future  Demand Outlook for 2015, 2020, 2025 Supply & Demand Balance for 2015, 2020, 2025 with a look at on-road and off-road applications

Geographical Coverage

5 Regions and over 20 Countries Covered:

Argentina, Brazil, Canada, China, Colombia, Finland, France, Germany, India, Indonesia, Italy, Japan, Malaysia, The Netherlands, Peru, Philippines, Poland, South Korea, Spain, Sweden, Thailand, United Kingdom, United States

Plus, a Look at Other Regions with Biofuels Production Potential

• Commonwealth of Independent States
• Sub-Saharan Africa
• and a separate analysis of California

These countries and regions have significant biofuels production and consumption and/or are putting into place biofuels public and fiscal policies that will trigger significant biofuels production and consumption within the study timeframe. A number of countries were included in this study because they have historically and/or continue to produce and/or consume large volumes of biofuels, such as the U.S., Brazil and Germany. Other countries will consume less biofuels internally, but will be in a position to export into the emerging global market in the coming years. These countries include Argentina and Thailand.

We estimate the countries represented in this study comprise about 95% of all biofuels produced and consumed globally.

Methodology

As a general matter, Hart Energy's Global Biofuels Center (GBC) has estimated supply capability based on current production capacity in place now and what GBC projects will be in place by the 2025 time frame. GBC has used production capacity from its Production Capacity Database to estimate production for the study time period for a number of countries where such data is not verifiable and/or available. Unless otherwise specified, “supply” will refer to local production throughout the study timeframe and such estimates come directly from our contacts with producers while considering such factors as currently operating capacity, historical production and utilization, projects that are currently under construction and those projects that have been proposed but have not yet been built.

GBC has used gasoline and on-road diesel demand figures developed and produced by colleagues at Hart Energy’s World Refining & Fuels Service as of July 2011 to estimate demand for both ethanol and biodiesel. GBC has calculated the likely ethanol and biodiesel demand based on both the public policy requirements that countries will be putting into place during the study time period and the likely blending levels or capacity of utilization in the countries studied. For biodiesel demand, GBC has considered the demand in on-road diesel as well as off-road applications where applicable. GBC has highlighted those countries it expects could be major biofuel exporters, as well as those countries that will likely need to import to meet expected demand. The analyses also include the GBC’s view of whether, based on its projections, biofuels mandates enacted will likely take effect as expected. Note that the GBC presents units in both liters and gallons.

 Some Key Findings

Ethanol

• Hart Energy’s analysis shows that the EU and Asia Pacific will be in a potential supply deficit for ethanol by 2025. On a global basis, there could be over supply by 2025 of close to 7 billion liters (1.8 billion gallons). The country expected to be the main supplier to the global ethanol market will be Brazil, which Hart Energy projects will be able to supply 5.6 billion liters (1.5 billion gallons) to the global market by 2025. No other country comes anywhere close to being able to supply these kinds of volumes.
• Chief competitors for Brazilian ethanol are expected to be the EU Member States (German, Italy, the U.K), and Japan although Thailand will also be in a position to supply ethanol in Asia..

Biodiesel

• Global biodiesel supply will have to rise sharply until 2025 to accommodate demand requirements that governments around the world are aiming to implement. Hart Energy expects fewer new facilities to be built but that utilization at existing facilities increases by 2025. For now, slack utilization rates for many plants around the world, continued industry consolidation and shut downs are expected to continue.
• With biodiesel overcapacity an issue globally, producers in the EU complaining about cheap imports and with policies structured that tend to disfavor imports altogether (e.g. U.S.), several countries will focus on their own internal markets. For example, biodiesel producers in Brazil are requesting an increase in the biodiesel blending limit to absorb excess capacity and supply their internal market.

Featured analysts who contributed to this Report:

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