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Global Biofuels Outlook to 2025

New This Year:
  • Forecasts go to 2025, with in-depth analysis of the impact of the RFS2 (U.S.) and RED (E.U.) regulations
  • A special focus on Brazil, its internal market, its exports to the world and related forecasts
  • Supply and demand forecast from Africa and the CIS included in the global forecast
  • Demand forecasts based on likely market penetration and not solely policy driven
  • Biodiesel demand in both the on-road and off-road sectors
  • A section highlighting what a balanced supply and demand outlook could mean for the regions expected to import biofuels.

Hart Energy brings you all essential global information on ethanol and biodiesel into ONE SINGLE, UNBIASED, RELIABLE report. Our fuel specialists around the world have thoroughly researched fundamental market data to bring you critical insight and a long-term view on the future of ethanol and biodiesel.

This timely report covers:

  • Projections for current and future production capacity for each region of the world and detailed for over 20 countries
  • Supply & demand per country, current and outlook to 2025
  • Policy review per region and per country
  • NEW FEATURE: Balanced supply and demand outlook

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Analysis and Contents

This study compiles and analyzes thoroughly researched market data to provide you with a long-term view on the growing role of biofuels in worldwide gasoline and diesel markets.

A comprehensive analysis of the global ethanol & biodiesel market with focus on key developments in 
Asia Pacific, EU-28, and the Americas, broken down at country level.

Covering predominantly ethanol and biodiesel, but also covering ETBE (ethyl tertiary butyl ether), cellulosic ethanol and renewable diesel (also known as non-ester biodiesel) where applicable, the study captures the current and near-term biofuels supply and demand picture in 23 countries in five key regions.

For each region, an introduction and overview will cover the major trends. The issues covered by country include:



  • Identification of key producers by country 
  • Projections for current and future production capacity 
  • Mapping of Public Policy Environment – Current and Future 
  • Demand Outlook for 2015, 2020, 2025
  • Supply & Demand Balance for 2015, 2020, 2025


  • Identification of key producers by country 
  • Projections for current and future production capacity 
  • Mapping of Public Policy Environment – Current and Future 
  • Demand Outlook for 2015, 2020, 2025
  • Supply & Demand Balance for 2015, 2020, 2025 with a look at on-road and off-road applications

Who Should Read This Report?

  • Petroleum Refiners 
  • Investors 
  • Automotive and Energy Executives 
  • Policy & Government 
  • Biofuels Producers 
  • Licensing Technology Suppliers 
  • Transportation Companies 
  • Agribusiness

For more information,
please contact Tammy Klein
at +1.239.970.2231.


Geographical Coverage

5 Regions and over 20 Countries Covered:

Argentina, Brazil, Canada, China, Colombia, Finland, France, Germany, India, Indonesia, Italy, Japan, Malaysia, The Netherlands, Peru, Philippines, Poland, South Korea, Spain, Sweden, Thailand, United Kingdom, United States

Plus, a Look at Other Regions with Biofuels Production Potential

  • Commonwealth of Independent States
  • Africa
  • and a separate analysis of California

These countries and regions have significant biofuels production and consumption and/or are putting into place biofuels public and fiscal policies that will trigger significant biofuels production and consumption within the study timeframe. A number of countries were included in this study because they have historically and/or continue to produce and/or consume large volumes of biofuels, such as the U.S., Brazil and Germany. Other countries will consume less biofuels internally, but will be in a position to export into the emerging global market in the coming years. These countries include Argentina and Thailand.

We estimate the countries represented in this study comprise about 95% of all biofuels produced and consumed globally.



As a general matter, Hart Energy's Global Biofuels Center (GBC) has estimated supply capability based on current production capacity in place now and what GBC projects will be in place by the 2025 time frame. GBC has used production capacity from its Production Capacity Database to estimate production for the study time period for a number of countries where such data is not verifiable and/or available. Unless otherwise specified, “domestic supply” will refer to local production throughout the study timeframe and such estimates come directly from our contacts with producers while considering such factors as currently operating capacity, historical production and utilization, projects that are currently under construction and those projects that have been proposed but have not yet been built.

GBC has used gasoline and on-road diesel demand figures developed and produced by colleagues at Hart Energy’s World Refining & Fuels Service as of July 2013 to estimate demand for both ethanol and biodiesel. GBC has calculated the likely ethanol and biodiesel demand based on both the public policy requirements that countries will be putting into place during the study time period and the likely blending levels or capacity of utilization in the countries studied. For biodiesel demand, GBC has considered the demand in on-road diesel as well as off-road applications where applicable. GBC has highlighted those countries it expects could be major biofuel exporters, as well as those countries that will likely need to import to meet expected demand. The analyses also include the GBC’s view of whether, based on its projections, biofuels mandates enacted will likely take effect as expected. Note that the GBC presents units in both liters and gallons.


 Some Key Findings

  • The ethanol supply and demand outlook shows that there will be regional imbalances that will require trade between the regions. In particular, North and Latin America are expected to have an excess of ethanol production while Asia Pacific and the EU are expected to rely on imports. Both Africa and the CIS should be balanced regions. Hart Energy has forecast a deficit of 1.9 billion liters (500 million gallons) of ethanol for the EU by 2015 and 500 million liters (140 million gallons) of ethanol for Japan in 2015. These two regions and countries are expected to require Brazilian ethanol for reasons of GHG savings and sustainability. However, Brazilian ethanol exports are not expected to reach that level in 2015.
  • Global biodiesel supply is expected to fall short of demand throughout the period and the shortfall is expected to exceed 3 billion liters (800 million gallons) for all the years of the study. Most of the shortfall is because of the large import forecast from the EU which might not be fulfilled by imports from other regions because of sustainability restrictions.  As in the case of ethanol, such a situation is not sustainable and Hart Energy has therefore revised the demand forecast and subsequent impact on the overall share of biofuels in the transportation sector that MS will be able to consume.

Featured analysts who contributed to this Report:

Tammy Klein, Senior Vice President
Maelle Soares-Pinto, Director, Global Biofuels Center
Terry Higgins, Executive Director, Refining & Special Projects

John Kneiss, Director, Government Affairs and U.S. Policy
Kuntal Vora, Manager, North America
Paul Niznik, Biofuels Manager

Aida Gonzalez Palomino, Manager, Latin America

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or contact Tammy Klein at +1.239.970.2231.

Ula Szalkowska, Director, Europe & Africa
Dr. Petr Steiner, Director, Global Refining

Denise Green, Manager, Europe & Africa
Kristine Bitnere, Manager, CIS & Eastern Europe

Middle East & Asia
Huiming Li, Director, Asia
Lucky Nurafiatin, Research Manager, Middle East & Asia
Dr. Preeti Jain, Research Manager, Refining Asia

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