Hart brings you all essential global information on ethanol and biodiesel into ONE SINGLE, UNBIASED, RELIABLE report. Our fuel specialists around the world have thoroughly researched fundamental market data to bring you critical insight and a long-term view on the future of ethanol and biodiesel.  

This timely report covers:

• Projections for current and future production capacity for each region of the world and detailed for over 30 countries
  
• Supply & demand per country, current and outlook to 2020
  
• Detailed status of existing plants – producing, shut down, idle…
  
• Policy and taxation review per country – historical, current, future
  
• NEW FEATURES: next-generation technologies, status of plants, ranking of countries..
  

[Download 2010 Brochure]

Download 2010
Table of Contents

Did you purchase
the 2009 report?
Access it here 

For more information, please contact Tammy Klein at +1.701.323.0417.

---

Analysis and Contents

This study compiles and analyzes thoroughly researched market data to provide you with a long-term view on the growing role of biofuels in worldwide gasoline and diesel markets.

A comprehensive analysis of the global ethanol & biodiesel market with focus on key developments in 
Asia Pacific, EU-27, Africa, Russia & the CIS countries, and the Americas, broken down at country level.

Covering predominantly ethanol and biodiesel, but also covering (ethyl tertiary butyl ether), cellulosic ethanol and renewable diesel (also known as non-ester biodiesel) where applicable, the study captures the current and near-term biofuels supply and demand picture in 32 countries in five key regions.

For each region, an introduction and overview will cover the major trends. The issues covered by country include:

	Ethanol Identification of key producers by country  Projections for current and future production capacity  Mapping of Public Policy Environment – Historical, Current and Future  Fiscal Policies: Tax, Mandates and Trade  Demand Outlook for 2010, 2015, 2020 Supply & Demand Balance for 2010, 2015, 2020
	Biodiesel Identification of key producers by country  Projections for current and future production capacity  Mapping of Public Policy Environment – Historical, Current and Future  Fiscal Policies: Tax, Mandates and Trade  Demand Outlook for 2010, 2015, 2020 Supply & Demand Balance for 2010, 2015, 2020

Geographical Coverage

5 Regions and over 30 Countries Covered:

Australia, Argentina, Brazil, Canada, China, Colombia, Czech Republic, Finland, France, Germany, Hungary, India, Indonesia, Italy, Jamaica, Japan, Malaysia, Mexico, The Netherlands, New Zealand, Philippines, Poland, South Korea, Spain, Sweden, Thailand, United Kingdom, United States, Venezuela

Plus, a Look at Other Regions with Biofuels Production Potential

• Commonwealth of Independent States
• Sub-Saharan Africa
• Central American Countries
• and a separate analysis of California

These countries and regions have significant biofuels production and consumption and/or are putting into place biofuels public and fiscal policies that will trigger significant biofuels production and consumption within the study timeframe. A number of countries were included in this study because they have historically and/or continue to produce and/or consume large volumes of biofuels, such as the U.S., Brazil and Germany. Other countries will consume less biofuels internally, but will be in a position to export into the emerging global market in the coming years. These countries include Ukraine, Hungary, Costa Rica, Thailand and Malaysia.

We estimate the countries represented in this study comprise about 95% of all biofuels produced and consumed globally. 

Methodology

As a general matter, GBC has estimated supply capability based on current production capacity in place now and what GBC projects will be in place by the 2015 time frame. GBC has used production capacity from its Production Capacity Database to estimate production for the study time period for a number of countries where such data is not verifiable and/or available. Unless otherwise specified, “supply” will refer to commercial operable capacity that we expect could be in place throughout the study timeframe and such estimates come directly from our contacts with producers. To develop this estimate, we consider such factors as currently operating capacity, historical production and utilization, projects that are currently under construction and those projects that have been proposed but have not yet been built.

GBC has used gasoline and on-road diesel demand figures developed and produced by colleagues at Hart’s World Refining & Fuels Service (www.hartwrfs.com) as of July 2009 to estimate demand for both ethanol and biodiesel. GBC has done a straightforward calculation of likely ethanol and biodiesel demand based generally on the public policy requirements that countries will be putting into place during the study time period. In its analyses, GBC has highlighted those countries it expects could be major biofuel exporters, as well as those countries that will likely need to import to meet expected mandates. The analyses also include the GBC’s view of whether, based on its projections, biofuels mandates enacted will likely take effect as expected (for most of the countries included in this study, GBC finds that they will, though at varying time frames). Note that the GBC presents units in both liters and gallons.

 Some Key Findings (download Press Release)

• Global ethanol demand will represent 14% of the global gasoline pool by 2015.
  
  
• GBC estimates potential supply for biodiesel by 2015 could reach 94 billion liters (24.8 billion gallons), more than double our demand estimate of 36 billion liters (9.5 billion gallons). Similarly to ethanol, governments in response could increase blending limits beyond B2-B5 to absorb excess capacity. Many proposed projects in all regions simply will not be built either. We expect unfavorable utilization rates for many plants to continue throughout the study period and many plants that operate now will likely not be in existence in 2015. Realistically, the actual supply for biodiesel will come closer to demand at somewhere closer to 40 billion liters (10.6 billion gallons).
   
• Note that while it is possible to increase biodiesel blending limits around the world to absorb this excess supply, GBC estimates that even with a 10% global biodiesel mandate applied in the four primary regions included in our supply and demand analysis would still produce a supply surplus of more than 20 billion liters (5.28 billion gallons) by 2015.
  
  
• Imports of Brazilian sugarcane ethanol to the US will increase to allow obligated parties to meet the LCFS and RFS2 in the 2011-2015 timeframe.
  
  
• EU faces overcapacity in biodiesel in the period 2009-2015.
  
  
• Asia-Pacific ethanol production will grow tremendously in the coming years and will represent 20% of global production by 2015.
  
  
• India could outpace Brazil in ethanol production and exporting by 2015
  
  
• Next-generation biofuels: Out of the approximately 170 projects around the world that are in some stage of development (operational, under construction or proposed), only a handful are actually operational and are expected to be during the study timeframe.

Featured analysts who contributed to this Report:

For more information, please contact Tammy Klein at +1.701.323.0417.

back to top